Elections and real estate Argentina 2023 By Diego Migliorisi

Elections and real estate market Argentina  2023. Expectations of the real estate sector

The years where the Rivadavia seat is disputed tend to reduce the activity of the purchase and sale of real estate.
Let’s wait and see what happens after the elections! This is one of the most common responses from both sellers and buyers. Of course, the uncertainty of what will come becomes the protagonist.

Elections and real estate market Argentina  2023
Elections and real estate market Argentina  2023

Elections and real estate market 2023
Elections and real estate market 2023

Those of us who have several decades of experience and those of us who run companies that have been in existence for 7 decades, subscribe to the theory that in these times not all selections have the same effect.
That is to say, the situation has changed and the sociopolitical environment is directly influenced by different perspectives, at least that is what many perceive.

Some believe that the opportunity will come later.

In a polarized scenario whose referents theoretically propose 2 different country models, buyers and sellers are on alert to analyze what is to come.

mercado inmobiliario argentino
POr Diego MIgliorisi

The hypotheses that are represented are among the most varied. On the one hand, there are buyers who consider that the economic question is a time bomb, it will be up to the next government to defuse it. Therefore, they subscribe to a quasi-apocalyptic theory that real estate prices will fall violently, and there they will have the moment of opportunity that they have been waiting for all their lives.

The seller who envisions a far recovery closer to 2025, going through storm eyes along the way, is the one who updates the market value, and says the time is today!
Following this analysis, if a seller updates his prices to the current market consolidation values ​​and reinvests in the short term, the loss will be practically nil. Whether he invests it in real estate or in any other item,
if we talk about hypotheses there is always a light at the end of the road, there are those who consider that there was a rapid recovery in the real estate market and prices. That means buy today and wait. or sell later.

time to buy property

Actually, there is no magic. Macroeconomic and social problems are not solved overnight. It is a process that must be cemented by the trust and predictability that must emanate from the powers of the state, encouraging investment, causing a scenario of real stability.
What we can highlight is that as soon as a confidence recovery process is underway and can be perceived by small, medium or large investors, the positive reactions are almost immediate.
This does not mean a flood of investment, but a slow and gradual recovery.

What will the real estate market be like in 2023.
I agree that a few months before the Internal elections of the parties known as PASO, a decrease in demand and in some sense in supply could be observed.

Invest in real estate that fell in price

These elections projected for August 2023 could have an effect on the market from May or June of that same year. In the same sense, the presidential elections, which are generally scheduled in Argentina for the month of October.

In the event that the electoral results force a second round between the 2 most voted candidates, uncertainty will continue until mid-November.

In this sense, it is important to highlight that it is logical that many buyers and sellers decide to postpone their projects until they know exactly who will direct the destinations of the Argentine Republic as of 12/10/2023.

What will the economic and tax policy be like, whether or not there will be incentives to invest in real estate, how will we work to contain inflation? and thus project the return of credit. These are one of the great doubts that arise among common players in the Argentine real estate market at election time.

That is why, when the country goes into electoral mode, these dilemmas worsen and market players analyze the possibility of unsaddling and waiting until it clears up.

In a certain way it is a way to protect savings in the midst of uncertainty. But it is also a way to miss opportunities.

As I stated in different columns throughout 2022, in the real estate market and mainly in Argentina, the opportunities go back to concrete and plausible scenarios. Finding ourselves with several realities, the idiosyncrasy and the vast majority of the Argentine electorate defend private property, therefore those who represent the people in parliament should follow this guideline.

We are going through a unique and unprecedented context in the real estate market, we have a historical supply surplus, mainly of small units. An attractive cost per square meter for construction, which allows an investment with an almost certain appreciation in the future. as well as who wants to move to improve their quality of life or accommodate a new phase, never in the history of Argentine real estate has had so many alternatives to choose from.

Unique opportunities to invest

In short, I believe that 2023 will be an active and very beneficial year for those who decide to invest with a future projection, either in brand new units or finished units.
As well as for those who decide to make the move to the house of their dreams, perhaps tomorrow when the market stabilizes and the overstock dwindles, these alternatives will be scarcer both in price and availability.

I don’t think it’s the best option to keep the dollars waiting for the apocalypse. Those who look askance at 2001 must understand that the circumstances are totally different.

Although a complex crisis is going through, we are not in a context of indebted owners or rather hanged by credits in dollars and by the urgent need to face debts that this very serious economic and social crisis left behind. We also did not find people’s savings seized and with practically no availability in what was called the corralito.

For this reason, he considered that 2023 will have good activity with gradual growth, at least until July, when the sales of small units for investment will be an interesting variant. Considering that, with the rise of tourism as a result of the exchange rate, properties for temporary income are extremely attractive.

The larger 3.4-room units for family-oriented house types will be the object of what we call simultaneous or chained sales. Because, as I said before, the opportunity to find a good property at a good price, even when there are overstocks. And at times where the values ​​dropped between 20 and 30% since 2019.

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The other segments such as the commercial, or the land to be developed can be the object of a more statesmanlike thought since it infers a deeper analysis of the development in the coming years.

But we may have a surprise, since in another order of things we must remember that we come from several years of contained demand due to the different local and international situations that Argentina had to face.

Finally, it is important to highlight that I believe that 2023, even with elections involved, will be a better year than 2022. That is, for the buyer it is black or white . Invest now or wait perhaps more than a year with a dollar that is devaluing internationally.

Por Diego Migliorisi
www.migliorisi.com.ar

Elections and real estate Argentina 2023 By Diego Migliorisi

Elections and real estate Argentina 2023 By Diego Migliorisi

Elections and real estate Argentina 2023 By Diego Migliorisi

Elections and real estate Argentina 2023 By Diego Migliorisi

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